What Happened Last Week

TL;DR:

• U.S. markets started the week quietly due to the Memorial Day holiday.
• U.S. GDP was revised lower, while PCE inflation stayed firm.
• Stocks remained supported by AI-related earnings, while traders monitored gold, oil, Bitcoin, and the U.S. dollar. 

Monday, May 25

• U.S. stock and bond markets were closed for Memorial Day. No major U.S. economic data was released.
• Lower liquidity means fewer market participants, which can make short-term price moves less reliable.

Tuesday, May 26

• U.S. Consumer Confidence fell to 93.1 from 93.8. This shows households became slightly less positive about the economy.
• The Expectations Index rose to 74.4 from 73.4. This matters because expectations can affect future spending.

Wednesday, May 27

• U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications fell 8.5% from the prior week, after a 2.3% drop. This suggests higher borrowing costs continued to pressure housing demand.
• No major central bank decision was released, so traders focused on upcoming U.S. growth and inflation data.

Thursday, May 28

• U.S. GDP — Gross Domestic Product, a measure of economic growth — was revised to 1.6% from the first estimate of 2.0%. This shows the economy grew more slowly than first reported.
• U.S. PCE — Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — rose 3.8% year over year from 3.5% prior. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.3%.
• This matters because sticky inflation can affect Fed rate expectations.
  Initial Jobless Claims rose to 215,000 from 210,000. Claims stayed low, which suggests layoffs remained limited.
• New Home Sales fell to 622,000 from 663,000. This points to continued pressure in the housing market.

Friday, May 29

• The U.S. goods trade deficit narrowed to $82.4 billion from $85.3 billion. A smaller deficit can support GDP, but traders may still watch import costs and supply pressure.
• U.S. stocks ended higher, with the S&P 500 posting another weekly gain. AI-related earnings helped support major indices, while gold and Bitcoin remained sensitive to inflation and risk sentiment.

What to Watch This Week

Monday, June 1

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI — Purchasing Managers’ Index, a survey of factory activity — is scheduled. Forecast: 53.3. Prior: 52.7. A reading above 50 suggests expansion.
• U.S. Construction Spending for April is scheduled. Forecast figure was not reliably available from open sources. Traders may watch this for signs of strength or weakness in building activity.

Tuesday, June 2

• U.S. JOLTS Job Openings — a report that measures available jobs — is scheduled for April. Prior: 6.866 million. Forecast figure was not reliably available from open sources.
• Fed speakers are also scheduled. Markets may react to comments about inflation and interest rates.

Wednesday, June 3

• ADP Employment Change — a private payroll report — is scheduled for May. Prior: 109,000. Forecast figure was not reliably available from high-confidence open sources.
• ISM Services PMI is scheduled. Prior: 53.6. Forecast figure was not reliably available from high-confidence open sources. Services matter because they make up a large part of the U.S. economy.
• The Fed Beige Book is scheduled. This report gives regional economic updates and may shape rate expectations.

Thursday, June 4

• U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims are scheduled for the week ending May 30. Prior: 215,000. Forecast figure was not reliably available from high-confidence open sources.
• U.S. Productivity for Q1 is scheduled. Traders may watch it because productivity can affect inflation and wage pressure.

Friday, June 5

• NFP — Non-Farm Payrolls, a measure of U.S. job creation — is scheduled for May. Forecast: 75,000. Prior: 115,000. This is the main U.S. event of the week.
• U.S. Unemployment Rate is expected at 4.3%. Prior: 4.3%. A steady reading may suggest the labor market is cooling slowly, not sharply.

Summary

• Last week’s tone was mixed: growth softened, inflation stayed firm, but equities remained supported by AI-related optimism.
• Top pair to watch: EUR/USD, because U.S. jobs data and eurozone inflation can both affect rate expectations.
• Macro wildcard: Middle East tensions and energy prices. Any fresh move in oil may affect inflation expectations, gold, the dollar, and risk assets like indices and Bitcoin.