ISTANBUL, Sept. 6 — Iran’s ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage against Washington is weakening as a U.S. naval blockade and tougher sanctions sharply reduce Tehran’s oil revenue without causing the global economic shock Iranian leaders had sought, according to officials and analysts.
The U.S. campaign has restricted Iran’s oil exports, access to foreign currency and international financing, increasing pressure on an economy already struggling with high inflation, a weakened currency and shortages of essential imports.
Washington and its regional partners are betting that the mounting costs will force Tehran to guarantee free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway carrying about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
Iran had expected disruption in the strait to push energy prices sharply higher and pressure the United States into negotiations. Instead, markets have adapted, alternative supplies have continued to flow and Tehran has been unable to stop all commercial traffic.
“The balance of power has tilted against Iran a bit,” Iranian analyst Arash Azizi said. The U.S. blockade was “really hitting Iran,” while the broader economic shock Tehran anticipated “hasn’t happened,” he added.
Iran has also struggled to maintain crude exports. The country went about seven weeks without sending meaningful volumes through Hormuz after the United States reinstated its blockade on July 14, according to shipping-data providers Kpler, Vortexa and TankerTrackers.com.
Iran loaded an estimated 220,000 to 255,000 barrels per day of crude oil and condensate in August, down from about 740,000 barrels per day in July and roughly 2 million barrels per day in March, Kpler and Vortexa data showed.
Unlike earlier sanctions campaigns, when Iranian tankers continued reaching foreign buyers through indirect routes, the blockade has prevented new cargoes from reaching China, Iran’s last major oil customer. Tehran can still sell crude held in floating storage outside the blockade zone, but those supplies cannot be easily replaced.
The decline is cutting into one of the government’s main sources of foreign currency. Homayoun Falakshahi, an analyst at Kpler, said Iran could be forced to finance spending by printing more money, potentially worsening inflation.
The International Monetary Fund estimates Iranian inflation will approach 70% this year. Iranian officials have also raised concerns about reduced trade, falling household incomes and possible shortages of wheat, fuel and other important imports.
President Masoud Pezeshkian has said Iran’s overall trade has fallen by between 25% and 35%, with imports suffering more heavily than exports. The rial has also weakened to more than 2.2 million against the dollar, compared with about 1 million a year earlier, according to Reuters reporting.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described Washington’s strategy as a “one-two punch” combining the blockade with what he called the toughest sanctions imposed on Iran.
Some U.S., Israeli and regional officials believe the economic strain could fuel public unrest, widen divisions inside Iran’s leadership and weaken the government’s ability to sustain the confrontation.
Iranian authorities have previously faced nationwide protests over economic conditions and political restrictions. However, analysts cautioned that financial pressure alone may not produce concessions or political change.
“The Iranians have consistently surprised us in terms of their resiliency,” said Dennis Ross, a former U.S. negotiator. He said Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards may believe the country can withstand the economic damage and wait for Washington to change course.
Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said wartime sentiment was also shaping public attitudes. Foreign military intervention and civilian casualties have helped sustain a degree of nationalist support, tolerance or patience with the government despite worsening economic conditions, she said.
Tehran has shown no public sign of abandoning its demands for sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and recognition of an Iranian security role in Hormuz. Iranian officials have also warned that further pressure could prompt additional military escalation.
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the dispute because Iran views its position along the waterway as one of its strongest strategic advantages. The United States, however, regards the strait as an international passage that must remain open without politically imposed transit fees.
Mediators are discussing a possible arrangement under which Iran could drop demands for a general toll while retaining the ability to charge for legitimate navigation, environmental or security services, regional sources said.
Such a formula could allow Tehran to step back without appearing to surrender while giving Washington a reopening of the strait it could present as a success.
“If you could announce that the Strait were reopened,” Ross said, “I think Trump would do a deal.”
The next test will be whether mediators can turn the proposed shipping arrangement into formal negotiations before deepening economic pressure or renewed attacks trigger another round of confrontation. (Reuters)
