TL;DR:

• Brent crude briefly rose above $100 last week, lifting inflation concerns, bond yields, and the safe-haven U.S. dollar.
• Inflation slowed in Canada and the UK, while the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged.
• The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will announce policy decisions this week alongside major GDP and inflation reports.

What Happened Last Week: July 20–24

Monday: China kept its one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%. Canadian inflation slowed from 3.2% to 2.8%, reducing expectations for additional Bank of Canada rate increases.

Tuesday: UK unemployment remained at 4.9%, while regular wage growth held at 3.4%. The figures showed a labour market that remained stable but weak.

Wednesday: UK inflation slowed to 2.6%. Japanese exports rose 19.3%, but imports climbed 25.4%, leaving Japan with a ¥406.9 billion trade deficit and adding pressure on the yen.

Thursday: The European Central Bank kept its deposit rate at 2.25% as officials continued to monitor the inflation impact of higher energy prices. Canadian retail sales rose 1.0% in May.

Friday: UK retail sales increased 1.0%. Flash Composite PMIs rose to 52.1 in the UK, 51.9 in the eurozone, and 53.6 in the U.S. A PMI above 50 normally signals business growth.

What to Watch This Week: July 27–31

Monday: U.S. durable-goods orders will provide an update on business spending. Oil prices and developments between the U.S. and Iran may continue influencing inflation expectations and risk sentiment.

Tuesday: U.S. consumer confidence is scheduled, while the Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting.

Wednesday: The Fed will announce its interest-rate decision. Traders will focus on its comments about oil, inflation, economic growth, and possible future rate changes.

Thursday: Australia releases inflation data. The Bank of England announces its policy decision, while U.S. GDP and PCE inflation—the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—are due alongside eurozone GDP.

Friday: The Bank of Japan concludes its meeting. China releases official business surveys, while eurozone inflation, Canadian GDP, and the U.S. Employment Cost Index are also scheduled.

Summary:

Oil and central-bank expectations may remain the main market drivers. Strong growth, persistent inflation, or cautious policy language could support the dollar and bond yields. Softer data may reduce rate expectations and ease pressure on equities, gold, Bitcoin, and other rate-sensitive markets.

Disclaimer:

This note is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should conduct your own analysis or consult a professional before making any trading decisions.