Brent oil is the world’s main benchmark price for crude oil, and in October 2026 the key question is whether it stays above $100 a barrel or slips below it. Brent closed at $100.32 on October 5, down from $102.25 the trading day before. This matters to Filipinos because the Philippines imports almost all of its oil. Where Brent goes next shapes pump prices, inflation, and the peso.

Key Takeaways

• Brent is sitting right at $100 because supply from the Middle East is recovering, but not fully.
• New attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, falling oil stocks, and fuel shortages could push it higher.
• Recovering Gulf exports, emergency reserve releases, and Saudi price cuts could pull it lower.
• OPEC+ kept its output targets unchanged for November and meets again on November 1.
• The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Brent to average around $90 in the second half of 2026.
• Philippine pump

Why Is Brent Oil Near $100 Right Now?

Brent is near $100 because the Middle East supply shock that began in late February has eased but not ended. Fighting between the US and Iran disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea route that normally carries about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas.

Prices swung hard this year. Brent passed $100 in March, neared $120 in April, and fell to $73.74 in late June when tankers began moving again. It climbed back above $100 in September and is still about 40% above pre-war levels.

What Could Push Brent Oil Above $100?

New attacks near the Strait of Hormuz

The biggest upside risk is fresh violence around Hormuz. Tanker attacks keep raising insurance, freight, and rerouting costs, and traders add a “risk premium” (extra price for the chance of a supply cut) to every barrel.

Shrinking oil inventories

Inventories are oil held in storage, a cushion against shortages. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global stocks have fallen by 507 million barrels since February, including 95 million barrels in August alone. A thin cushion means even small disruptions can lift prices fast.

Shortages of diesel and other fuels

Refining capacity, which turns crude into diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel, is tight. Drone attacks on Russian refineries and Gulf disruptions have cut output. Shipping a tanker of Middle Eastern crude to Asia now costs over $1.2 million a day, up from about $30,000 in January. 

What Could Push Brent Oil Below $100?

Gulf exports returning to normal

Middle East crude shipments have rebounded to about 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels, according to JPMorgan. If flows hold steady without new attacks, the risk premium can fade.

Emergency oil reserve releases

The Group of Seven (G7) plans to release 100 million barrels of crude and fuel from emergency stockpiles over four months. More supply on the market usually means lower prices.

Saudi price cuts and weaker demand

Saudi Aramco cut its November price for Asian buyers to $5 below the regional benchmark, a six-year low. Meanwhile, the IEA expects world oil demand to fall by 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026 as high prices hurt buyers, especially in Asia. 

What Is OPEC+ Doing About Oil Prices?

OPEC+ is holding steady for now. On October 4, its seven core members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, kept November output targets unchanged after pausing increases in October. Most members already pump below their targets because of the conflict, so actual barrels matter more than targets. The group meets again on November 1.

What Do Forecasters Expect for Brent Oil?

Most forecasts point lower over time, not right away. The EIA expects Brent to average around $90 in the second half of 2026, then fall to $77 by the second quarter of 2027 as stocks rebuild. The IEA sees supply jumping by 8 million barrels a day in 2027 as Gulf output recovers. These forecasts assume no major new disruption.

What Does Brent Above or Below $100 Mean for Filipinos?

Brent drives the overall direction, but Philippine pump prices follow the Asian prices of finished fuels, which move on their own supply and shipping issues. That is why, on October 6, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced a diesel rollback of PHP 1.30 per liter while gasoline rose by up to PHP 1.93 and kerosene by up to PHP 3.30.

If Brent stays above $100, expect pressure on fares, power, and food. Inflation already hit 7.2% in September, and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised its rate to 5% in August. A sustained drop below $100 would ease that pressure and could help the peso, since the country would spend fewer dollars on oil imports.

Traders should watch the OPEC+ meeting on November 1, the EIA and IEA monthly reports, and the DOE’s Tuesday price adjustments.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will oil prices go down this October 2026?

They might, but it is not certain. Recovering Gulf exports, the G7 reserve release, and Saudi price cuts are pulling Brent down. New attacks near Hormuz or faster stock drawdowns could reverse that quickly, so expect swings around $100.

Why is Brent still above $100 if Gulf oil exports are back?

Shipping, insurance, and refining costs are still very high, and global oil stocks are far below pre-war levels. Traders also keep a risk premium in the price because another attack could cut supply again.

How does Brent oil affect gas and diesel prices in the Philippines?

Brent affects local prices indirectly. Local oil companies price fuel off Asian refined-product prices, which follow crude but also react to refinery and shipping problems. The DOE announces adjustments weekly, usually taking effect every Tuesday.

What is the difference between Brent and WTI?

Brent is crude from the North Sea and is the main global benchmark, including for Asia. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is the US benchmark. WTI settled at $89.43 on October 5, about $11 below Brent, partly because the Middle East crisis hit global supply harder than US supply.

Is it safe to trade oil or USD/PHP while Brent is near $100?

Oil is very jumpy right now, and one headline can move it several dollars in a day. If you trade, use small position sizes, set a stop-loss (an order that closes your trade at a set loss), and never risk money you need for daily expenses.

Conclusion

Brent’s path in October depends on one balance: steadier Middle East supply versus the risk of fresh disruption. Watch Hormuz headlines, oil stock data, and OPEC+ decisions together, and remember that local pump prices can move differently from Brent. Understanding these drivers helps you plan your budget and your trades with less guesswork.